Figure 4.

Observed vs. expected distributions of waiting times between phenotypic mutations along genealogy trunk. (A) Histogram bins show the observed distribution of waiting times in years across 80 replicate simulations representing 1,584 mutations. The mean of this distribution is 1.76 years. The dashed line shows the Poisson process expectation of exponentially distributed waiting times. (B) The density distribution of waiting times is transformed into a hazard function, representing the rate of trunk mutation after a specific waiting time. The dashed line shows the memoryless hazard function of the Poisson process expectation.