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. 2011 Jan;17(1):7–15. doi: 10.3201/eid1701.P11101

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Example schematic diagram of the estimation and uncertainty model used to estimate episodes of illness, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States. Count, data (empirical distribution); Year, factor to standardize non-2006 counts to 2006 (constant); Sub, expansive factor to scale area surveillance to the entire US population (constant); Ob, expansive factor to scale outbreak counts up to outbreak plus sporadic counts (beta distribution); CS, expansive factor to scale care seekers to all ill, with severe and mild illness versions (PERT distribution); SS, expansive factor to scale submitted samples to all visits, with severe and mild illness versions (PERT distribution); PS, estimated proportion of illnesses that are severe (PERT distribution); LT, expansive factor to scale tests performed up to samples submitted (PERT distribution); LS, expansive factor to scale positive test results up to true positive specimens (PERT distribution); H, contractive factor to scale illnesses down to hospitalized illnesses (PERT distribution); D, contractive factor to scale illnesses down to deaths (PERT distribution); F, contractive factor to scale illnesses down to foodborne illnesses (PERT distribution).