Table 4.
The predicted and observed physician density (PD), continent, economic status, and analysis set in 130 countries, rank-ordered by the predicted-observed PD discrepancy
| Rank | Country | Continent | OECD | Economic | Analysis Set | Predicted PD | Observed PD | Discrepancy (per 10,000) | Population | Physician number |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Japan | AS | Yes | H | T | 36.3 | 20.6 | -15.7 | 126,804,433 | -199,397 |
| 2 | Bosnia/Herzegovina | EU | No | M | V | 28.8 | 13.6 | -15.2 | 4,621,598 | -7,005 |
| 3 | Sri Lanka | AS | No | M | T | 19.3 | 5.5 | -13.8 | 21,513,990 | -29,629 |
| 4 | Korea | AS | Yes | H | T | 28.6 | 16.3 | -12.3 | 48,636,068 | -59,672 |
| 5 | Romania | EU | No | M | T | 30.8 | 19.3 | -11.5 | 22,181,287 | -25,600 |
| 6 | Suriname | SA | No | M | T | 13.0 | 1.6 | -11.4 | 486,618 | -555 |
| 7 | Slovenia | EU | No | H | V | 34.3 | 23.7 | -10.7 | 2,003,136 | -2,134 |
| 8 | Canada | NA | Yes | H | T | 31.1 | 21.4 | -9.7 | 33,759,742 | -32,794 |
| 9 | Myanmar | AS | No | L | V | 12.9 | 3.6 | -9.3 | 48,137,741 | -44,694 |
| 10 | Bhutan | AS | No | M | T | 9.6 | 0.5 | -9.1 | 699,847 | -635 |
| 11 | Mauritius | AF | No | M | T | 19.3 | 10.6 | -8.7 | 1,294,104 | -1,132 |
| 12 | Poland | EU | Yes | M | T | 30.5 | 22.0 | -8.5 | 38,463,689 | -32,643 |
| 13 | Morocco | AF | No | M | T | 13.0 | 5.1 | -7.9 | 31,627,428 | -24,973 |
| 14 | Kiribati | AO | No | M | V | 9.8 | 2.3 | -7.5 | 115,401 | -87 |
| 15 | Croatia | EU | No | M | T | 32.0 | 24.8 | -7.2 | 4,486,881 | -3,237 |
| 16 | Serbia | EU | No | M | T | 27.0 | 20.0 | -7.0 | 7,344,847 | -5,110 |
| 17 | Montenegro | EU | No | M | V | 26.0 | 20.0 | -6.0 | 666,730 | -399 |
| 18 | Iran | ME | No | M | T | 14.6 | 8.8 | -5.8 | 67,037,517 | -39,190 |
| 19 | United Kingdom | EU | Yes | H | T | 29.0 | 23.7 | -5.3 | 61,284,806 | -32,431 |
| 20 | Albania | EU | No | M | V | 16.9 | 11.8 | -5.1 | 3,659,616 | -1,859 |
| 21 | Tunisia | AF | No | M | V | 18.2 | 13.4 | -4.8 | 10,589,025 | -5,122 |
| 22 | Seychelles | AF | No | M | T | 19.4 | 15.1 | -4.3 | 88,340 | -38 |
| 23 | Bangladesh | AS | No | L | V | 7.1 | 2.8 | -4.3 | 158,065,841 | -68,214 |
| 24 | Cyprus | EU | No | H | V | 28.1 | 24.0 | -4.1 | 1,102,677 | -453 |
| 25 | Vanuatu | AO | No | M | V | 5.5 | 1.4 | -4.1 | 221,552 | -91 |
| 26 | Luxembourg | EU | Yes | H | T | 29.2 | 25.3 | -3.9 | 497,538 | -193 |
| 27 | New Zealand | AO | Yes | H | V | 25.4 | 22.0 | -3.4 | 4,252,277 | -1,436 |
| 28 | Gabon | AF | No | M | V | 6.2 | 2.9 | -3.3 | 1,545,255 | -509 |
| 29 | Syria | ME | No | M | T | 8.2 | 5.0 | -3.2 | 22,198,110 | -7,090 |
| 30 | Nepal | AS | No | L | V | 5.1 | 2.1 | -3.0 | 28,951,852 | -8,570 |
| 31 | Kuwait | ME | No | H | V | 20.9 | 18.0 | -2.9 | 2,789,132 | -822 |
| 32 | India | AS | No | M | T | 8.5 | 6.0 | -2.5 | 1,180,512,215 | -294,800 |
| 33 | Djibouti | AF | No | M | T | 4.1 | 1.8 | -2.3 | 740,528 | -174 |
| 34 | Ghana | AF | No | L | V | 3.8 | 1.5 | -2.3 | 24,339,838 | -5,699 |
| 35 | Mauritania | AF | No | L | T | 3.4 | 1.1 | -2.3 | 3,205,060 | -743 |
| 36 | Eritrea | AF | No | L | T | 2.6 | 0.5 | -2.1 | 5,792,984 | -1,195 |
| 37 | Senegal | AF | No | L | T | 2.5 | 0.6 | -1.9 | 14,086,103 | -2,691 |
| 38 | Comoros | AF | No | L | V | 3.4 | 1.5 | -1.9 | 773,407 | -143 |
| 39 | Togo | AF | No | L | V | 2.0 | 0.4 | -1.6 | 6,199,841 | -977 |
| 40 | Macedonia | EU | No | M | V | 25.6 | 24.1 | -1.5 | 2,072,086 | -320 |
| 41 | Finland | EU | Yes | H | V | 30.5 | 29.0 | -1.5 | 5,255,068 | -796 |
| 42 | Namibia | AF | No | M | T | 4.4 | 3.0 | -1.4 | 2,128,471 | -297 |
| 43 | Nauru | AO | No | M | V | 9.1 | 7.7 | -1.4 | 14,264 | -2 |
| 44 | Timor-Leste | AS | No | M | T | 2.1 | 1.0 | -1.1 | 1,131,612 | -129 |
| 45 | Benin | AF | No | L | V | 1.4 | 0.4 | -1.0 | 9,056,010 | -944 |
| 46 | Sudan | AF | No | M | V | 3.6 | 2.6 | -1.0 | 41,980,182 | -4,240 |
| 47 | Australia | AO | Yes | H | T | 28.5 | 27.5 | -1.0 | 21,515,754 | -2,165 |
| 48 | Rwanda | AF | No | L | V | 1.4 | 0.5 | -0.9 | 11,055,976 | -954 |
| 49 | Germany | EU | Yes | H | V | 35.0 | 34.2 | -0.8 | 82,282,988 | -6,898 |
| 50 | Maldives | AS | No | M | V | 10.0 | 9.2 | -0.8 | 395,650 | -31 |
| 51 | Côte d'Ivoire | AF | No | L | T | 2.0 | 1.2 | -0.8 | 21,058,798 | -1,639 |
| 52 | Libya | AF | No | M | V | 13.2 | 12.5 | -0.7 | 6,461,454 | -480 |
| 53 | Cape Verde | AF | No | M | T | 5.6 | 4.9 | -0.7 | 431,822 | -31 |
| 54 | Mozambique | AF | No | L | T | 1.0 | 0.3 | -0.7 | 22,061,451 | -1,531 |
| 55 | Laos | AS | No | L | T | 4.2 | 3.5 | -0.7 | 6,993,767 | -477 |
| 56 | Hungary | EU | Yes | H | T | 31.2 | 30.5 | -0.7 | 9,880,059 | -645 |
| 57 | Guinea | AF | No | L | V | 1.7 | 1.1 | -0.6 | 10,324,025 | -665 |
| 58 | Central African Rep. | AF | No | L | T | 1.3 | 0.8 | -0.5 | 4,578,768 | -231 |
| 59 | United States | NA | Yes | H | T | 24.6 | 24.1 | -0.5 | 310,232,863 | -14,835 |
| 60 | Turkey | ME | Yes | M | V | 15.0 | 14.6 | -0.5 | 77,804,122 | -3,674 |
| 61 | Sierra Leone | AF | No | L | T | 0.7 | 0.3 | -0.4 | 5,245,695 | -224 |
| 62 | Burundi | AF | No | L | T | 0.7 | 0.3 | -0.4 | 9,863,117 | -406 |
| 63 | Botswana | AF | No | M | V | 4.4 | 4.0 | -0.4 | 2,029,307 | -74 |
| 64 | Latvia | EU | No | M | T | 31.7 | 31.3 | -0.3 | 2,217,969 | -74 |
| 65 | Cameroon | AF | No | M | T | 2.2 | 1.9 | -0.3 | 19,294,149 | -626 |
| 66 | Zimbabwe | AF | No | L | V | 1.9 | 1.6 | -0.3 | 11,651,858 | -307 |
| 67 | Congo (Brazzaville) | AF | No | M | V | 2.2 | 2.0 | -0.2 | 4,125,916 | -71 |
| 68 | Chad | AF | No | L | T | 0.5 | 0.4 | -0.1 | 10,543,464 | -105 |
| 69 | Malawi | AF | No | L | T | 0.3 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 15,447,500 | -150 |
| 70 | Burkina Faso | AF | No | L | T | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 16,241,811 | -80 |
| 71 | Ukraine | EU | No | M | T | 30.3 | 30.3 | 0.0 | 45,415,596 | -47 |
| 72 | Liberia | AF | No | L | T | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 3,441,790 | 30 |
| 73 | Niger | AF | No | L | V | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 15,306,252 | 170 |
| 74 | Spain | EU | Yes | H | V | 35.5 | 35.9 | 0.4 | 40,548,753 | 1,583 |
| 75 | Angola | AF | No | M | V | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 13,068,161 | 704 |
| 76 | Slovakia | EU | Yes | H | V | 30.1 | 30.6 | 0.5 | 5,470,306 | 300 |
| 77 | Mali | AF | No | L | T | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 13,796,354 | 844 |
| 78 | Uganda | AF | No | L | V | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 33,398,682 | 2,044 |
| 79 | Congo (Kinshasa) | AF | No | L | T | 0.3 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 70,916,439 | 5,561 |
| 80 | South Africa | AF | No | M | T | 6.8 | 7.7 | 0.9 | 49,109,107 | 4,373 |
| 81 | Zambia | AF | No | L | V | 0.3 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 12,056,923 | 1,110 |
| 82 | Guinea-Bissau | AF | No | L | T | 0.2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1,565,126 | 151 |
| 83 | Andorra | EU | No | H | V | 35.6 | 36.6 | 1.0 | 84,525 | 8 |
| 84 | Madagascar | AF | No | L | T | 1.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 21,281,844 | 2,270 |
| 85 | Pakistan | ME | No | L | V | 6.4 | 7.7 | 1.3 | 177,276,594 | 22,940 |
| 86 | Sao Tome & Principe | AF | No | L | V | 3.3 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 219,334 | 36 |
| 87 | Yemen | ME | No | L | V | 1.7 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 23,495,361 | 3,871 |
| 88 | Equatorial Guinea | AF | No | H | T | 1.3 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 650,702 | 108 |
| 89 | Czech Republic | EU | Yes | H | T | 33.8 | 35.5 | 1.7 | 10,201,707 | 1,726 |
| 90 | Afghanistan | ME | No | L | V | 0.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 29,121,286 | 5,274 |
| 91 | Estonia | EU | No | H | T | 30.9 | 32.8 | 1.9 | 1,291,170 | 249 |
| 92 | Portugal | EU | Yes | H | V | 31.6 | 33.5 | 1.9 | 10,735,765 | 2,081 |
| 93 | Cook Islands | AO | No | H | T | 9.8 | 11.8 | 2.0 | 23,000 | 5 |
| 94 | Qatar | ME | No | H | V | 24.2 | 26.4 | 2.2 | 840,926 | 186 |
| 95 | Moldova | EU | No | M | V | 23.9 | 26.5 | 2.6 | 4,320,748 | 1,137 |
| 96 | Ireland | EU | Yes | H | V | 25.0 | 28.2 | 3.1 | 4,250,163 | 1,331 |
| 97 | Italy | EU | Yes | H | T | 35.7 | 39.0 | 3.3 | 58,090,681 | 19,097 |
| 98 | Austria | EU | Yes | H | V | 32.1 | 35.5 | 3.4 | 8,214,160 | 2,762 |
| 99 | Bulgaria | EU | No | M | T | 32.3 | 35.8 | 3.4 | 7,148,785 | 2,436 |
| 100 | Denmark | EU | Yes | H | T | 27.4 | 30.8 | 3.4 | 5,515,575 | 1,897 |
| 101 | Iraq | ME | No | M | V | 2.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 29,671,605 | 11,054 |
| 102 | Sweden | EU | Yes | H | T | 31.2 | 35.0 | 3.8 | 9,059,651 | 3,465 |
| 103 | Oman | ME | No | H | T | 11.0 | 15.0 | 4.0 | 3,525,875 | 1,398 |
| 104 | Mexico | NA | Yes | M | V | 13.7 | 17.9 | 4.2 | 112,468,855 | 47,141 |
| 105 | Saudi Arabia | ME | No | H | V | 9.4 | 13.7 | 4.3 | 29,207,277 | 12,531 |
| 106 | France | EU | Yes | H | V | 29.5 | 33.9 | 4.4 | 64,768,389 | 28,812 |
| 107 | Malta | EU | No | H | T | 30.4 | 35.6 | 5.2 | 406,771 | 212 |
| 108 | Switzerland | EU | Yes | H | V | 32.7 | 38.0 | 5.3 | 7,623,438 | 4,026 |
| 109 | Netherlands | EU | Yes | H | V | 29.3 | 37.1 | 7.8 | 16,783,092 | 13,090 |
| 110 | Norway | EU | Yes | H | T | 28.1 | 36.4 | 8.3 | 4,676,305 | 3,892 |
| 111 | Lebanon | ME | No | M | T | 14.5 | 23.6 | 9.1 | 4,060,766 | 3,689 |
| 112 | Bahrain | ME | No | H | T | 17.8 | 27.1 | 9.3 | 738,004 | 686 |
| 113 | Belgium | EU | Yes | H | T | 30.4 | 40.1 | 9.7 | 10,423,493 | 10,124 |
| 114 | Lithuania | EU | No | M | T | 29.1 | 39.6 | 10.5 | 3,545,319 | 3,725 |
| 115 | Niue | AO | No | M | V | 9.5 | 20.0 | 10.5 | 1,398 | 1 |
| 116 | Iceland | EU | Yes | H | V | 24.5 | 36.7 | 12.2 | 308,910 | 377 |
| 117 | Kyrgyzstan | ME | No | L | V | 11.4 | 24.4 | 13.0 | 5,508,626 | 7,183 |
| 118 | Armenia | EU | No | M | V | 22.9 | 36.1 | 13.3 | 2,966,802 | 3,933 |
| 119 | Russia | EU | No | M | V | 28.5 | 42.7 | 14.2 | 139,390,205 | 197,550 |
| 120 | Jordan | ME | No | M | T | 7.3 | 22.0 | 14.7 | 6,407,085 | 9,391 |
| 121 | Egypt | AF | No | M | T | 9.6 | 24.3 | 14.7 | 80,471,869 | 118,113 |
| 122 | Tajikistan | ME | No | L | V | 4.8 | 20.3 | 15.5 | 7,487,489 | 11,635 |
| 123 | Greece | EU | Yes | H | V | 35.1 | 50.8 | 15.7 | 10,749,943 | 16,836 |
| 124 | Turkmenistan | ME | No | M | T | 9.9 | 25.7 | 15.8 | 4,940,916 | 7,783 |
| 125 | Uzbekistan | ME | No | L | V | 10.2 | 26.7 | 16.5 | 27,865,738 | 45,950 |
| 126 | Belarus | EU | No | M | V | 29.5 | 46.9 | 17.4 | 9,612,632 | 16,757 |
| 127 | Georgia | EU | No | M | T | 26.5 | 44.9 | 18.3 | 4,600,825 | 8,442 |
| 128 | Azerbaijan | EU | No | M | V | 17.2 | 36.0 | 18.8 | 8,303,512 | 15,637 |
| 129 | Israel | ME | No | H | V | 17.3 | 37.4 | 20.1 | 7,353,985 | 14,787 |
| 130 | Kazakhstan | AS | No | M | V | 16.7 | 37.3 | 20.7 | 15,460,484 | 31,933 |
Notes. PD = physician density (per 10,000 population)
Discrepancy = Predicted PD minus Observed PD
Physician Number = Discrepancy × Population ÷ 10,000
T and V: T (Training set) or V (Validation set)
Continent: AF = Africa, AS = Asia, AO = Australia/Oceania, EU = Europe,ME = Middle East, NA = North America, SA = South America
OECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
Economics: L (Low income); M (Middle income); H (High income)