Table 1.

Two-status model of risk behavior: sample means of the risk behavior indicators for all four T2 → T3 transition possibilities, weighted by most likely transition patterns

	Transition probability classes
	Low → Low	Low → High	High → Low	High → High
Prevalence	39.5 %	41.8 %	2.5 %	16.2 %
Posterior sample means
T2
Tobacco use	0.12	0.24	2.00	2.67
Cannabis use	0.01	0.02	0.88	1.06
Alcohol use	0.48	0.75	3.67	3.74
Externalizing behavior	0.23	0.29	0.53	0.50
T3
Tobacco use	0.18	2.30	0.25	3.42
Cannabis use	0.03	2.00	0.06	2.78
Alcohol use	1.21	5.05	0.99	4.86
Externalizing behavior	0.22	0.37	0.36	0.45