Table 2.

Predictors of transitions in risk behavior status from T2 → T3, multivariate model

T1 predictors	Transition classes (reference class is Low → Low)
	Low → High			High → High
	OR	95 % CI		OR	95 % CI
Socio-demographic factors
Female gender (p)	1.08	0.84	1.39	0.84	0.63	1.11
Higher age (p)	1.06	0.87	1.27	0.99	0.77	1.29
Higher socio-economic status (p)	0.93	0.78	1.11	0.83	0.64	1.06
Ethnic minority (p)	0.96	0.61	1.52	1.00	0.59	1.71
Individual factors (T1)
Aggressive behavior at age 4/5 (p)	1.13	0.93	1.36	1.27	0.99	1.61
Shyness (p)	0.97	0.87	1.10	0.83	0.68	1.03
High-intensity pleasure (p)	1.18**	1.05	1.32	1.26*	1.06	1.51
Effortful control (p)	0.98	0.83	1.15	0.77*	0.62	0.95
Alcohol use (s)	1.47	1.10	1.97	1.96***	1.37	2.78
Tobacco use (s)	1.27	0.84	1.93	2.80***	1.81	4.32
Marihuana or other drug use (s)	1.46	0.38	5.58	1.15	0.30	4.48
Externalizing behavioral problems (s)	1.54	0.73	3.24	8.30***	3.35	20.56
Family factors (T1)
Parents divorced (p)	1.12	0.79	1.58	1.82**	1.21	2.74
Maternal smoking (p)	1.18	0.91	1.54	1.66**	1.20	2.30
Paternal smoking (p)	1.12	0.86	1.46	1.32	0.90	1.94
Maternal alcohol use (p)	0.87	0.61	1.23	0.94	0.64	1.38
Paternal alcohol use (p)	1.20	0.67	2.17	1.29	0.62	2.68
Parental overprotection (s)	1.30	0.95	1.79	2.00**	1.28	3.13
Parental rejection (s)	0.89	0.58	1.36	0.60	0.33	1.09
Parental warmth (s)	1.00	0.75	1.33	0.87	0.60	1.24

s self report, p parent report

*p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001