Table 3.
Performance statistics (with sensitivity set to 90%) of models for detecting drug eras at high risk of future poor adherence among the drug eras remaining after the large medication gap filter was applied
| Day 60 model | Day 90 model | Day 120 model | |
| Antihyperlipidemics | |||
| Sensitivity | 89.9% | 90.0% | 90.0% |
| Specificity | 44.8% | 75.8% | 82.0% |
| Accuracy | 46.2% | 76.2% | 82.2% |
| Positive predictive value | 44.8% | 75.8% | 82.0% |
| Negative predictive value | 99.3% | 99.6% | 99.6% |
| Antihypertensives | |||
| Sensitivity | 90.0% | 90.0% | 90.0% |
| Specificity | 36.9% | 68.0% | 80.7% |
| Accuracy | 38.3% | 68.6% | 80.9% |
| Positive predictive value | 36.9% | 68.0% | 80.7% |
| Negative predictive value | 99.3% | 99.6% | 99.7% |
| Oral hypoglycemics | |||
| Sensitivity | 90.0% | 90.0% | 90.0% |
| Specificity | 46.8% | 72.6% | 81.4% |
| Accuracy | 48.3% | 73.2% | 81.7% |
| Positive predictive value | 46.8% | 72.6% | 81.4% |
| Negative predictive value | 99.2% | 99.5% | 99.5% |
All metrics improved across the three prediction dates.