Table 3. Probabilities for the models in tested C. grandiflora.

Model	Subsample 1	Subsample 2	Subsample 3	Subsample 4
	Local sampling
Standard neutral model	0.023906	0.021943	0.024364	0.017462
Population expansion model	0.025716	0.021559	0.023288	0.024967
Bottleneck model	0.030185	0.034777	0.036350	0.035327
	Pooled sampling
Standard neutral model	0.022127	0.019107	0.025184	0.018780
Population expansion model	0.021171	0.023279	0.024462	0.023276
Bottleneck model	0.021300	0.038277	0.032474	0.041330
	Scattered sampling
Standard neutral model	0.022910	0.018927	0.030752	0.019591
Population expansion model	0.065575	0.021527	0.024750	0.024492
Bottleneck model	0.039082	0.017925	0.021514	0.022461

ABC analysis (Lopes and Beaumont 2010) was used in each species on all four subsamples across all three sampling strategies. Probabilities correspond to the proportion of accepted simulations with an acceptance threshold of 0.05. Analyses are based on synonymous sites.