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. 2012 May 29;109(24):9557–9562. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1203517109

Fig. 5.

Fig. 5.

Projected reduction in city-wide TB incidence after normalizing hotspots, according to size and intensity of hotspot. Values of contour lines show the proportional reduction in city-wide TB incidence at the end of year 5 achieved by lowering TB transmission in hotspots to the mean value in the rest of the city (Fig. 3, green line). Box A assumes complete geographic isolation of the hotspot (i.e., no cross-transmission from hotspot to community), box B assumes 0.5 transmission events from hotspot to community for every hotspot-to-hotspot transmission, and box C assumes one hotspot-to-community transmission for every hotspot-to-hotspot transmission. The baseline scenario in the text corresponds to box B, with a relative transmission rate of 2.6 and hotspot size of 0.06 (9.8% reduction). Other scenarios that replicate the TB incidence seen in Rio de Janeiro hotspots are a relative transmission rate of 2.1 in box A (4.3% reduction) and 3.5 in box C (16.3% reduction). These scenarios are shown with open circles.