Table 1.

Model parameters

Epidemiological data point	Value, Rio de Janeiro	Value, model	Corresponding model parameter	Value in model	Sensitivity analysis range	Source
TB incidence, per 100,000 per year	95.3	95.3	Number of transmissions per case of active TB per year, community	3.71	2.36–4.59	(1)
Proportion of TB incidence in the hotspot	16.5%	16.5%	Number of transmissions per case of active TB per year, hotspot	9.74	7.93–11.40	(1)
HIV/TB incidence, per 100,000 per year	10.7	10.7	Rate of rapid progression after recent infection, HIV-positive, per year	0.31	0.15–0.82	(2)
			Rate of slow progression after remote infection, HIV-positive, per year	Held at 25% the rate of rapid progression		(3, 4)
TB mortality, per 100,000/y	5.0	5.0	TB mortality rate, HIV-negative, per year	0.031	0.016–0.047	(2)
HIV/TB mortality, per 100,000/y	0.7	0.7	TB mortality rate, HIV-positive, per year	0.074	0.041–0.111	(2)
TB prevalence, per 100,000	103.1	103.1	TB detection and treatment rate, HIV-negative, per year	0.87	0.79–0.99	(5)
			TB detection and treatment rate, HIV-positive, per year	Held at twice the HIV-negative rate		Reflects relative mortality rates
HIV prevalence, per 100,000	390	390	HIV incidence, per year	1.5 × 10−4	1.0–2.1 × 10−4	(2)
HIV mortality, per 100,000/y	16.0	16.0	HIV mortality rate (non-TB) per year	0.026	0.001–0.5	(2)
Proportion of retreatment cases	27.4%	27.4%	TB relapse rate per year	0.0083	0.0063–0.0187	(2)
Additional parameters not fit to epidemiological data			Relative infectivity of HIV/TB cases	0.68	0–1	(6)
			Partial immunity to reinfection if latently infected	0.56	0.42–0.70	(7, 8)
			Duration of recent infection phase	5 y	4.2–6.2 y	(9)
			Rate of rapid progression during this phase, HIV-negative, per year	0.03	0.026–0.036	(9)
			Rate of slow progression of remote TB infection, HIV-negative, per year	0.0005	0.0002–0.0011	(4)
			Life expectancy	73 y	40–100	(10)
			Relative HIV incidence in hotspot vs. community	2.13	1.0–5.0	(2)