Figure 4.

Variation within generations. (A) Illustration of a branching process with variation in offspring distributions within generations. The solid curve shows the mean selection coefficient ${\bar{s}}_n$ with κ = 0.01, σ = 0.1, and s₀ = 0.02, and shaded dots show selection coefficients of mutant copies for a single realization. (B) The expected selection coefficient ${\bar{s}}_n$ on a different scale. (C) Probability of establishment as a function of the initial selection coefficient s₀. The solid curve shows the analytical approximation, solid dots shows results from simulations, and the whiskers show 99% confidence intervals. Other parameters are as in A.