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. 2012 Jul 5;7(7):e40212. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0040212

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Rapacciuolo et al.

This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited.

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Accuracy of predicted changes in occupancy between t₁ and t₂ as a function of species’ observed proportional range change between t₁ and t₂: (A) histogram of the frequency of species’ proportional range change values; (B) correct classification rate across stable grid squares (i.e., those that have remained either occupied or unoccupied between time periods; CCR_stable) as a function of observed proportional range change, overall and for each modelling technique; (C) correct classification rate across changed grid squares (i.e., those that have changed occupancy status between time periods; CCR_changed) as a function of observed proportional range change, overall and for each modelling technique. Functions were fitted using generalised additive models (GAM; using a cubic spline smoother with 4 degrees of freedom). This analysis was limited to species experiencing a proportional change between −100% and +100% (i.e., 85% of all species), due to the very high influence of the few species whose range more than doubled. The dashed line in panels (B) and (C) represents the value of CCR expected from a random guess (i.e., CCR = 0.5).