Table 3. Correlation coefficients of observed versus predicted range size and range change for model forecasts.

	Butterflies		Plants		Birds
	Range size	Range change	Range size	Range change	Range size	Range change
Mn(PA)	0.76***	−0.10	0.68***	−0.01	0.72***	0.36***
RF	0.96***	0.43**	0.85***	−0.02	0.95***	0.38***
GBM	0.87***	−0.23	0.63***	−0.04	0.75***	0.45***
MaxEnt	0.82***	−0.23	0.52***	0.01	0.72***	0.41***
GAM	0.84***	−0.11	0.58***	−0.03	0.80***	0.38***
GLM	0.80***	−0.11	0.60***	−0.02	0.80***	0.36***
ANN	0.65***	−0.19	0.45***	−0.03	0.44***	0.35***
MARS	0.72***	−0.39	0.62***	−0.04	0.81***	0.43***
CTA	0.87***	0.02	0.58***	−0.07**	0.76***	0.40***
SRE	0.90***	0.13	0.89***	0.21***	0.90***	0.35***

Reported values are the Spearman’s ρ coefficients of observed versus predicted range size in t₂ (range size column) and observed versus predicted change in range size between time periods (range change column) for each modelling framework and major taxonomic group modelled. Stars indicate the significance level of correlations: ^*  =  p<0.05; ^**  =  p<0.01; ^***  =  p<0.001.