Table 4. Relative effect of taxonomic and methodological variation on accuracy of forecasts.

	AUC	Sensitivity	Specificity	CCRstable	CCRchanged
Species	46.26	36.53	25.90	35.50	33.62
Technique	29.05	14.73	32.33	19.05	4.24
Group	5.59	4.76	0.15	0.44	17.23
Residual	19.11	43.99	41.62	45.01	44.91

The values reported are the results of a variance components analysis of the linear mixed-effects (LME) models investigating the factors affecting the accuracy of forecasts. AUC, sensitivity, specificity of the entire range, as well as the correct classification rate of grid squares that have remained occupied or unoccupied (CCR_stable), and the correct classification rate of grid squares that have changed occupancy status between time periods (CCR_changed) were modelled as a function of the following random effects: modelling framework (n = 10), major taxonomic group (n = 3) and species (n = 1823). The ratio between the variance explained by each random effect and null variance (expressed as a percentage) is reported for each random effect in each model.