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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2013 Aug 1.
Published in final edited form as: Diabet Med. 2012 Aug;29(8):e151–e158. doi: 10.1111/j.1464-5491.2012.03660.x

Table 4.

Comparison of predicted and observed risks of 7.5-year incidence of diabetes in models with and without I/GAUC 60–120

Model A plus I/GAUC 60–120
(a) < 1% yearly risk 1–5.9% yearly risk ≥ 6% yearly risk % Reclassified
(a) Model A*
< 1% yearly risk
 Total, n 848 43 0
 % 95.2 4.8 4.8
 Observed yearly risk 0.2 1.6 - -
1–5.9% yearly risk
 Total, n 81 408 23
 % 15.8 79.7 4.5 20.3
 Observed yearly risk 0.7 2.9 10.4
≥ 6% yearly risk
 Total, n 0 17 75
 % 18.5 81.5 18.5
 Observed yearly risk 2.4 8.4
(b)Model B§ Model B and I/GAUC 60–120
< 1% yearly risk
 Total, n 907 51 0
 % 94.7 5.3 5.3
 Observed yearly risk 0.2 1.3 -
1–5.9% yearly risk
 Total, n 57 348 15
 % 13.5 82.9 3.6 17.1
 Observed yearly risk 0.7 3.0 8.0
≥ 6% yearly risk
 Total, n 0 12 105
 % 10.3 81.5 10.3
 Observed yearly risk 2.4 8.4

All estimated and observed risks represent yearly risk of incident diabetes.

*

Model A included age, sex, ethnicity, family history of diabetes, BMI, Matsuda index and ΔI0–30/ΔG0–30 (insulinogenic index from 0 to 30 min) as independent variables.

Per cent classified in each risk stratum by the model with I/GAUC 60–120 (ratio of area under the insulin curve to area under the glucose curve from 60 to 120 min).

Observed proportion of participants developing diabetes in each category.

§

Model B included independent variables of Model A plus impaired glucose tolerance.