Table 4.

Comparison of predicted and observed risks of 7.5-year incidence of diabetes in models with and without I/G_{AUC 60–120}

	Model A plus I/G_{AUC 60–120}
(a)	< 1% yearly risk	1–5.9% yearly risk	≥ 6% yearly risk	% Reclassified
(a) Model A^*
< 1% yearly risk
Total, n	848	43	0	–
%^†	95.2	4.8	–	4.8
Observed yearly risk^‡	0.2	1.6	-	-
1–5.9% yearly risk
Total, n	81	408	23	–
%	15.8	79.7	4.5	20.3
Observed yearly risk	0.7	2.9	10.4	–
≥ 6% yearly risk
Total, n	0	17	75	–
%	–	18.5	81.5	18.5
Observed yearly risk	–	2.4	8.4	–
(b)Model B^§	Model B and I/G_{AUC 60–120}
< 1% yearly risk
Total, n	907	51	0	–
%^†	94.7	5.3	–	5.3
Observed yearly risk^‡	0.2	1.3	-	–
1–5.9% yearly risk
Total, n	57	348	15	–
%	13.5	82.9	3.6	17.1
Observed yearly risk	0.7	3.0	8.0	–
≥ 6% yearly risk
Total, n	0	12	105	–
%	–	10.3	81.5	10.3
Observed yearly risk	–	2.4	8.4	–

All estimated and observed risks represent yearly risk of incident diabetes.

Model A included age, sex, ethnicity, family history of diabetes, BMI, Matsuda index and ΔI_0–30/ΔG_0–30 (insulinogenic index from 0 to 30 min) as independent variables.

^†

Per cent classified in each risk stratum by the model with I/G_{AUC 60–120} (ratio of area under the insulin curve to area under the glucose curve from 60 to 120 min).

^‡

Observed proportion of participants developing diabetes in each category.

^§

Model B included independent variables of Model A plus impaired glucose tolerance.