Table 4. HIV incidence rate per 100 person-years in year 2016 for different potential scenarios of future ART scale-up.

Model	“Low" Future Scale-Up		“Baseline" Future Scale-Up		“Medium" Future Scale-Up		“High" Future Scale-Up
	HIV Incidence 2016a	Number Different from “Baseline"b	HIV Incidence 2016a	Number Different from “Baseline"b	HIV Incidence 2016a	Number Different from “Baseline"b	HIV Incidence 2016a	Number Different from “Baseline"b
Bendavid	1.20	39,000	1.14	—	1.06	−64,000	0.89	−270,000
CD4 HIV/ART	1.77	176,000	1.21	—	0.80	−327,000	0.54	−506,000
Eatonc	1.23 (1.07, 1.39)	106,000 (100,000, 113,000)	1.05 (0.89, 1.21)	—	0.79 (0.65, 0.95)	−111,000 (−118,000, −101,000)	0.70 (0.56, 0.83)	−310,000 (−334,000, −286,000)
Goals	1.50	186,000	1.16	—	0.88	−187,000	0.64	−419,000
Granich	1.34	142,000	1.14	—	0.87	−225,000	0.53	−521,000

Number of adults (age 15 y and older) initiating ART between midpoint of the previous year and the midpoint of indicated year.

^aHIV incidence rate per 100 susceptible person-years amongst 15- to 49-y-olds at midpoint of year 2016.

^bCumulative number of additional new infections over the period mid-2011 to mid-2016 compared to “baseline" future scale-up scenario (rounded to nearest 1,000).

^cThe Eaton model reports posterior mean and 95% credible intervals.