Observed Versus Predicted Number of Prescriptions for Antibiotics of Concern (ABX) per Capita, by PCP
A. Predictions Using Tailored (ABX) Model
B. Predictions Using Generic (Health-Spending Calibrated) Model
Note: Each dot plots average observed vs. average predicted number of prescriptions for antibiotics of concern for one practice among 436 PCPs serving 456,781 patients. Data are from the Practice-Based sample of patients assigned to mid-size practices in the Thomson Reuters 2007 MarketScan Commercial Claims. In each figure the predicted number of prescriptions for each practice is the mean of its individual level predictions. Figure 4A predictions are made using a model tailored to predict this specific outcome, while Figure 4B uses the normalized risk score from a model tailored to predict total health spending. Each model was estimated on the full sample (N~17.4 million), as a function of age, sex, 394 hierarchical condition categories (HCCs) and interaction terms.