Table 3. Posterior probability of event or non-event given the number of positive ratings.

Total Number of Adverse Event ratings out of 30 raters	Probability that case truly is an Adverse Event
0 (0%)	0.0000
1 (3.3%)	0.0000
2 (6.6%)	0.0000
3 (9.9%)	0.0000
4 (13.2%)	0.0000
5 (16.5%)	0.0000
6 (20.0%)	0.0000
7 (23.3%)	0.0000
8 (26.7%)	0.0003
9 (30.0%)	0.0026
10 (33.3%)	0.0219
11 (36.7%)	0.1612
12 (40.0%)	0.6225
13 (43.3%)	0.9340
14 (46.7%)	0.9918
15 (50.0%)	0.9990
16 (53.3%)	0.9999
17 (56.7%)	1.0000
18 (60.0%)	1.0000
19 (63.3%)	1.0000
20 (66.7%)	1.0000
21 (70.0%)	1.0000
22 (73.3%)	1.0000
23 (76.7%)	1.0000
24 (80.0%)	1.0000
25 (83.3%)	1.0000
26 (86.7%)	1.0000
27 (90.0%)	1.0000
28 (93.3%)	1.0000
29 (96.7%)	1.0000
30 (100%)	1.0000

These estimates are from the latent class model that assumed a common sensitivity and specificity for all reviewers.