Predicted 10-year risk of heart failure vs. percentile of risk for models parameterized as follows: Demographic model – Age, race and sex; Demographic model + log(proBNP) – Age, race, sex, log(NT-proBNP); ARIC basic model – age, race, sex, prevalent CHD, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, blood pressure medication use, heart rate, smoking status, and BMI; ARIC basic model + log(proBNP) – age, race, sex, prevalent CHD, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, blood pressure medication use, heart rate, smoking status, BMI and log(NT-proBNP).