Table 3.

Discrimination of several models optimized to predict the 10-year risk of heart failure.

Sample		Optimism corrected Areas Under the ROC Curve
		Framingham (V1)		Health-ABC (V1)		ARIC
		From published beta	Derived beta	From published beta	Derived beta	Basic V1	Basic V4	Basic V4 with NT-proBNP
All		0.614	0.762	0.785	0.783	0.797	0.772	0.805
	Male	0.727	0.764	0.772	0.773	0.782	0.771	0.812
	Female	0.700	0.766	0.790	0.790	0.813	0.770	0.799

V1 and V4 refers to use of elements from the ARIC cohort’s field center visits i.e., visit 1 (1987–89) and visit 4 (1996–98), respectively. V4 was used as baseline in estimations involving NT-proBNP. The number of participants when using V1 = 13555, and using V4 = 10103.

The variables included in the Framingham HF risk score⁹ are age, gender, CHD, diabetes, ECG-based left ventricular hypertrophy, valve disease, heart rate, and systolic blood pressure. Health ABC score^10,11 includes the Framingham study variable with following differences: added serum albumin, serum creatinine, and smoking status; replaced glucose for diabetes; removed valve disease. The ARIC basic HF risk score includes age, race, gender, CHD, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, blood pressure medication use, heart rate, smoking status, and body mass index. AUCs are corrected for optimism.

The GB statistics for all the models presented above was <0.01.