Table 3.

Regression Results

	Change in the Number of Plans (log scale)	Change in the Number of Contracts (log scale)	Change in Enrollment
Quartile 1 (lowest spending)	0.114** (0.038)	0.050 (0.055)	0.27 (0.27)
Quartile 2	0.073* (0.031)	0.020 (0.045)	0.30%* (0.15)
Quartile 3	0.053* (0.027)	0.010 (0.040)	0.02% (0.12)
Generosity pre-PPACA ($100)	−0.030* (0.013)	−0.001 (0.019)	0.17%*(0.07)

^*p < .05.

^**p < .01.

Note. Regression model also includes county population dummies, PFFS penetration, and percent of plans with high quality ratings. All figures are based on data from HMO and PPO MA plans only. Plan and contract regressions are unweighted, enrollment regressions are weighted by Medicare population.

Source: CMS's “Medicare Options Compare” files for 2010–2011 and contract-plan-state-county enrollment data for 2010–2011.