Risk Adjuster		Non-LIS Subjects		LIS Subjects
		MAPE	Adj R^2	MAPE	Adj R^2
Demographics	Age+gender	620	0.0108	737	0.0084
RxHCC	RxHCC (score)	520	0.2056	612	0.2438
Prior Drug	RxClass (48 indicators)	406	0.4105	526	0.3833
Information	Cost (annualized)	420	0.4776	478	0.5687
RxHCC+ Prior Drug	RxHCC+RxClass (48 indicators)	403	0.4173	516	0.4118
Use Info	RxHCC+Prior Cost (annualized)	392	0.5225	451	0.6034

Source: Authors’ analysis

Notes: Includes all subjects with at least one month of enrollment in 2006. Cost (annualized) = 12*actual drug expenditure in 2006/months of enrollment in 2006. The MAPE (Mean Absolute Prediction Error) is the average of the absolute difference between the predicted and actual plan liability for each subject.