Table 1.

Assumed hazard ratios for prostate cancer survival for primary and hormonal treatments relative to conservative management.

Efficacy assumptions	RP, RP+ADT, and RT+ADT		RT by 1995
	50–64 y	65–84 y	50–64 y	65–84 y
Assumption set 1	0.62	0.62	0.70	0.70
Assumption set 2	0.62	0.62	0.80	0.80
Assumption set 3	0.49	0.83	0.55	0.90
Assumption set 4	0.49	0.83	0.63	0.90

Notes: RP is radical prostatectomy, RT is radiation therapy, ADT is androgen deprivation therapy. All-age and age-specific hazard ratios for RP, RP+ADT, and RT+ADT are from Bill-Axelson et al.² with similarity between RP and RT+ADT based on Cooperberg et al.²³; we assume RP+RT is similar to RP. The all-age hazard ratio for RT is 0.90 until 1990, improves linearly to 0.70 (Assumption set 1) or 0.80 (Assumption set 2) in 1995, and remains constant thereafter. The age-specific hazard ratio for RT for men aged 50–64 y at diagnosis is 0.90 until 1990, improves linearly to 0.55 (Assumption set 3) or 0.63 (Assumption set 4) in 1995, and remains constant thereafter; the hazard ratio for RT for men aged 65–84 y at diagnosis is a constant 0.90 across calendar years.