Table 3.
First major osteoporotic fractures observed among Rochester, MN women and men compared to numbers predicted by revised US FRAX (FN BMD), by age at baseline and quartile of full 10-year fracture probability (%).
|
Quartileb |
≥40 years old at baseline | ≥60 years old at baseline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Observed | Predicted | SIR (95% CI)a | Observed | Predicted | SIR (95% CI)a | |
| Women |
||||||
| Q1 (0 to <4.7) | 2 | 1.7 | 1.2 (0.2–4.4) | 0 | —c | N.A. |
| Q2 (4.7 to <10.4) | 5 | 4.5 | 1.1 (0.4–2.6) | 4 | 2.6 | 1.5 (0.4–3.9) |
| Q3 (10.4 to <17.9) | 15 | 7.6 | 2.0 (1.1–3.3) | 13 | 6.3 | 2.0 (1.1–3.5) |
| Q4 (17.9 to 44.9) | 22 | 15.5 | 1.5 (0.95–2.3) | 22 | 14.3 | 1.5 (0.96–2.3) |
| Subtotal | 44 | 28.2 | 1.6 (1.1–2.1) | 39 | 23.3 | 1.7 (1.2–2.3) |
|
| ||||||
| Men |
||||||
| Q1 (0 to <3.6) | 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 (0.5–6.6) | 1 | 0.2 | 5.6 (0.1–31) |
| Q2 (3.6 to <5.2) | 2 | 2.5 | 0.8 (0.1–2.9) | 2 | 1.5 | 1.4 (0.2–4.9) |
| Q3 (5.2 to <8.1) | 7 | 3.1 | 2.3 (0.9–4.7) | 5 | 2.4 | 2.1 (0.7–5.0) |
| Q4 (8.1 to 29.8) | 6 | 6.4 | 0.9 (0.4–2.1) | 6 | 5.4 | 1.1 (0.4–2.4) |
| Subtotal | 18 | 13.2 | 1.4 (0.8–2.2) | 14 | 9.4 | 1.5 (0.8–2.5) |
|
| ||||||
| Total | 62 | 41.5 | 1.5 (1.2–1.9) | 53 | 32.7 | 1.6 (1.2–2.1) |
aStandardized incidence ratio (SIR) and 95% confidence interval (CI).
bQuartiles (Q) defined using all ages.
cNo subjects in this group.