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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2012 Aug 23.

Published in final edited form as: Science. 2012 Jun 22;336(6088):1541–1547. doi: 10.1126/science.1222526

Fig. 4 — Proportion of respiratory droplet transmissible A/H5N1 virus in a long infection with virus replication for 14 days in the presence of hill-climb selection. Bold lines show results from a probability-based deterministic model of virus mutation, the pale region (composed of lines) shows 10,000 stochastic model simulations for each starting virus. Starting viruses require either five (blue), four (green), three (orange) mutations to become respiratory droplet transmissible. For the stochastic simulations the lines start when the first virion that has the required mutations appears.

Fig. 4 — Proportion of respiratory droplet transmissible A/H5N1 virus in a long infection with virus replication for 14 days in the presence of hill-climb selection. Bold lines show results from a probability-based deterministic model of virus mutation, the pale region (composed of lines) shows 10,000 stochastic model simulations for each starting virus. Starting viruses require either five (blue), four (green), three (orange) mutations to become respiratory droplet transmissible. For the stochastic simulations the lines start when the first virion that has the required mutations appears.