Table 1.

Evaluation of the different model performance based on the area under the curve for the receiver operating characteristic (AUC). All method outputs have been rescaled between 0 and 1 and compared with binary absence/presence observations obtained from the ECDC/VBORNET project. The analysis has been carried out only for the regions where the presence or absence of A. albopictus has been reported (figure 2).

	1960–1989	1990–2009	2005–2009
model 1	0.69	0.65	0.68
model 2	0.69	0.64	0.67
model 3	0.65	0.61	0.63