Table 1.
Annual transition estimates of the natural history of chronic hepatitis B by initial state
| Initial state | Outcome | Estimate (%)* | Referencesa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chronic hepatitis B e+ | Resolution | 6.9 (2.0–23) | [10] |
| Cirrhosis | 3.8 (1.6–5.9) | [11] | |
| Hepatocellular carcinoma | 0.3 (0.3–0.6) | [11] | |
| Chronic hepatitis B e− | 1.9 (1.0–3.8) | [11] | |
| Chronic hepatitis B e− | Resolution | 1.6 (0.0–11) | [10] |
| Cirrhosis | 9.7 (2.9–16.3) | [11] | |
| Hepatocellular carcinoma | 0.3 (0.3–0.6) | [11] | |
| Cirrhosis e+ | Decompensated cirrhosis | 3.9 (2.0–7.9) | [12–14] |
| Hepatocellular cancer | 1.8 (0.9–3.8) | [12–14] | |
| HBV related death | 3.1 (3.1–3.8) | [12–14] | |
| Cirrhosis e− | Decompensated cirrhosis | 2.7 (1.4–5.4) | [12–14] |
| Hepatocellular cancer | 2.9 (1.0–5.6) | [12–14] | |
| HBV related death | 3.1 (3.1–3.8) | [12–14] | |
| Decompensated Cirrhosis | Liver transplantation | 23 (15–25) | Personal communicationb |
| HBV related death | 26 (15–62) | [12–14] | |
| Hepatocellular carcinoma | Liver transplantation | 6 (3.0–7.0) | Personal communicationb |
| HBV related death | 35 (20–60) | [10] | |
| Liver transplant | HBV related death | 6.6 (2.0–12) | [10] |
HBV hepatitis B virus
* Ranges are shown in parentheses
aEstimates derived from European cohort studies
bThe probabilities of receiving a liver transplantation for decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma were calculated on the basis of data from six major transplant centers in Turkey