Table 2.

Treatment-related annual transition estimates

Initial state	Outcome	Estimate (%)
		Lamivudine		Entecavirh		Adefovir salvage		Tenofoviri		Tenofovir salvagej
HBeAg status		+	−	+	−	+	−	+	−	+	−
CHB initial therapya	Sustained virological response	20	10	22b	11b	12	10	23	11	19	11
	Cirrhosisc	0.5	1.2	0.2	0.6	0.5	1.2	0.2	0.6	0.5	1.2
	Hepatocellular carcinomaf	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2
CHB long-term therapy	Sustained virological response	24	10	27b	11b	12	10	27	11	19	11
	Cirrhosisc	0.5	1.2	0.2	0.6	0.5	1.2	0.2	0.6	0.5	1.2
	Resistance: year 1	23d	23e	0.1	0.1	6e	6e	0	0	0	0
	Year 2	42d	42d	0.3	0.3	21e	21e	0	0	1	1
	Year 3	53d	53d	0.4	0.4	21e	21e	0.4	0.4	1	1
	Year 4	70d	70d	0.8	0.8	21e	21e	0.8	0.8	1	1
	Year 5	74d	74d	1	1	21e	21e	1	1	1	1
	Hepatocellular carcinomaf	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2
Resistant CHB long-term therapy	Sustained virological response	4.5	0	5b	0.5b	4.5	0	5	0.5	5	0.5
	Cirrhosisc	2.7	6.2	2.7	6.2	2.7	6.2	2.7	6.2	2.7	6.2
	Hepatocellular carcinomaf	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4
Cirrhosis initial therapy	Sustained virological response	20	10	22b	11b	12	10	23	12	19	11
	Hepatocellular carcinomaf	0.9	1.5	0.9	1.5	0.9	1.5	0.9	1.5	0.9	1.5
Cirrhosis long-term therapy	Sustained virological response	24	10	27b	11b	12	10	27	11	19	11
	Resistance: year 1	23d	23d	0.1	0.1	6′′	6′′	0	0	0	0
	Year 2	42d	42d	0.3	0.3	21e	21e	0	0	1	1
	Year 3	53d	53d	0.4	0.4	21e	21e	0.4	0.4	1	1
	Year 4	70d	70d	0.8	0.8	21e	21e	0.8	0.8	1	1
	Year 5	74d	74d	1	1	21e	21e	1	1	1	1
	Decompensated cirrhosis	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9
	Hepatocellular carcinoma	1.6	1.6	1.6	1.6	1.6	1.6	1.6	1.6	1.6	1.6
	Death HBV	2.4	2.4	2.4	2.4	2.4	2.4	2.4	2.4	2.4	2.4
Resistant cirrhosis long-term therapy	Sustained virological response	4.5	0	5b	0.5b	4.5	0	5	0.5	5	0.5
	Decompensated Cirrhosis	7.9	7.9	7.9	7.9	7.9	7.9	7.9	7.9	7.9	7.9
	Hepatocellular carcinoma	1.8	2.9	1.8	2.9	1.8	2.9	1.8	2.9	1.8	2.9
	Death HBV	3.1	3.1	3.1	3.1	3.1	3.1	3.1	3.1	3.1	3.1
Decompensated Cirrhosis	Liver transplantationg	3.3	3.3	3.3	3.3	3.3	3.3	3.3	3.3	3.3	3.3
	Death HBV	26	26	26	26	26	26	26	26	26	26
Hepatocellular carcinoma	Liver transplantationg	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2
	Death HBV	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35	35
Liver transplantation	Death HBV	6.6	6.6	6.6	6.6	6.6	6.6	6.6	6.6	6.6	6.6

Estimates from Kanwal et al. [10, 15]

^aInitial therapy is 12 months (48 weeks) of therapy

^bEstimates from recent clinical trials: Chang et al. [16], Lai et al. [17] and Colonno et al. [18]

^cEstimates calculated by the author, based on the assumption that the natural progression rates of chronic hepatitis B are reduced by antiviral therapy. Estimates derived from natural history estimate similar to Kanwal’s assumption of no progression of disease in HBeAg seroconversion, we assume no progression of disease in case HBV DNA is undetectable by PCR. In the papers from Chang and Lai full suppression of HBV DNA was observed in 80 % with a high resistance profile drug, and 90 % with a low resistance profile drug. We took these percentages for our calculations. Refs. [16, 17]

^dEstimates for Lamivudine resistance from Lai et al. [19] and Moskovitz et al. [20]

^eAdefovir salvage resistance estimates from Lee et al. [21], Chen et al. [22] and Yeon et al. [23]

^fEstimates based on reduction of progression rates by nucleoside analogue therapy of 50 % Ref. [24]

^gThe probabilities of receiving a liver transplantation for decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma were calculated on the basis of data from six major transplant centres in Turkey

^hEstimates for entecavir resistance from Colonno et al. [18, 25] and Tenney et al. [26]

ⁱTenofovir monotherapy estimates Ref. [27]

^jTenofovir salvage scenario estimates from van Bommel et al. [28], Sarin et al. [29], van Bommel et al. [30] and Reijnders et al. [31]