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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2012 Sep 3.
Published in final edited form as: J Exp Psychol Hum Percept Perform. 2009 Jun;35(3):700–717. doi: 10.1037/a0013553

Figure B1.

Figure B1

Incompatibility bias in the spatial uncertainty model under interrogation. (A) The histogram for P(M =C|X1) obtained from 2000 simulated trials is centered at .5 but highly skewed. The majority of trials (67.5%) weakly favor “incompatible” (P(M =C|X1) < .5), and a minority favor “compatible” (P(M =C|X1) > .5). (B) The red lines are the likelihood functions for x for the two incompatible stimuli types, and the blue lines are for the two compatible stimuli. Cyan and magenta are the sum of the compatible and incompatible likelihood functions, respectively. Most of the mass from any one of the four individual likelihood functions falls into the region bounded by the green lines, where the marginal posterior probability for incompatible is higher than compatible. (C) The marginal posterior P(M|X1) favors incompatible (dark blue) for most of the samples, which are actually drawn from M =C (and s2 = H).