Table. Definitions of measles outbreak model parameters with assumed values and probability distribution*.
| Model parameter | Notation | Value/distribution | Reference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Duration of incubation period (from distribution) | Dinc | Log normal (2.3,0.2); 7–14 d after infection, mode 10 d. | (21–23) |
| Duration of latent period (distribution) | Dlat | (Dinc − 4) + normal (0.7); latent period ends ≈4 d before symptom onset. | (21–23) |
| Duration of infectious period (from distribution) | Dinf | (Dinc + 4 − Dlat) + normal (0.7); infectious period ends ≈4 d after symptom onset. | (21–23) |
| Duration of symptomatic period (from distribution) | Dsymp | Dlat + Dinf − Dinc; assumes that symptomatic period ends at same time as infectious period. | (21–23) |
| Duration of period to build up immunity after vaccination (from distribution) | Dimm | 13.2 + normal (3.0); approximates measles-specific IgM positivity rates of 2% and 61% after 1 and 2 weeks of vaccination, respectively. | (24) |
| Number of daily contacts per person (from distribution) | ncont | 20 + NegBin (0.155,2.2). | (25) |
| Infection probability of a susceptible person after contact with an infectious person | Pinf | 0.12 in the R0≈16 scenario; 0.2348 in the R0≈31 scenario. | This article (Model Calibration) |
| Vaccination effectiveness | VES | 0.9975. | (5) |
| Infection probability of a vaccinated person after contact with an infectious person | Pinf,vac | Pinf (1 − VES ); 3 × 10–4 in the R0≈16 scenario; 5.869 × 10–4 in the R0≈31 scenario. | This article (Vaccination) |
*NegBin, negative binomial probability distribution; R0≈16, scenario in which basic reproduction number R0≈16 is considered; R0≈31, scenario in which basic reproduction number R0≈31 is considered.