Fig. 3.

Expected changes in start, mean, and end fruiting time for the period 1970–2010 in the four different countries plotted against the species-averaged fruiting day. The annual fruiting time is calculated for each species across the period 1970–2010. Cubic smooth spline functions describe the relationship between mean annual fruiting date (calculated for the period 1970–1985) and temporal changes in start, mean, and end of fruiting season in the four countries. The blue line represents the average smoothed trend, and the red lines correspond to 95% confidence intervals. The thin black line represents a linear trend using a classic least-squares procedure. The asterisks indicate the significance level of the linear models, where 0.05>*>0.001>**. The models here include a term for the sampling intensities, and the trends are all calculated assuming constant mean sampling intensities (ln(N + 1) = 2.2).