Fig. 2.

Model predictions on the distribution of confidence ratings. (A) Distributions of confidence ratings conditional on guessing (green) and detection (orange). (B–D) Discrete-state predictions for the distribution of confidence ratings for the one-, four-, and zero-repetition condition, respectively. (E) A discrete-state model predicts that confidence ratings are a mixture of ratings from detect states and guess states. Increases in study repetition increase the probability that a judgment is from the detect-state distribution. (F) A latent-strength model predicts that as the stimulus is repeated more often, the distribution of confidence ratings shifts toward high-confidence correct responses. Ratings for the zero-repetition and four-repetition condition are shown upright; ratings for the one-repetition condition are facing downward to reduce clutter.