Table 1.
Naïve and cross-validated comparison of the predictive performance of the five approaches, with 95% confidence intervals
| Comparison | Statistic | Approach 1 | Approach 2 | Approach 3 | Approach 4 | Approach 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naïve |
AUC* |
0.633 (0.567-0.695) |
0.633 (0.567-0.695) |
0.759 (0.701-0.809) |
0.757 (0.699-0.807) |
0.765 (0.707-0.815) |
| |
BS** |
0.246 (0.219-0.272) |
0.163 (0.142-0.183) |
0.135 (0.116-0.154) |
0.136 (0.116-0.155) |
0.134 (0.114-0.154) |
| Cross validated |
AUC |
0.633 (0.567-0.695) |
0.616 (0.550-0.679) |
0.707 (0.644-0.763) |
0.707 (0.644-0.763) |
0.695 (0.632-0.752) |
| BS | 0.246 (0.219-0.272) | 0.164 (0.143-0.185) | 0.146 (0.126-0.167) | 0.146 (0.126-0.166) | 0.149 (0.128-0.171) |
* AUC = Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, ** BS = Brier score.