Table 4.

Model proportion needing treatment by age group and programme year, defining treatment need as proportion expected to die within 3 years in the absence of treatment

	Years since start of treatment programme
Current age group	0	1	2	3	4	5
15–19	0.091	0.112	0.124	0.131	0.134	0.135
20–24	0.153	0.196	0.230	0.258	0.282	0.300
25–29	0.203	0.259	0.306	0.347	0.383	0.414
30–34	0.245	0.309	0.364	0.413	0.456	0.493
35–39	0.282	0.353	0.415	0.469	0.517	0.558
40–44	0.315	0.392	0.459	0.517	0.568	0.612
45–49	0.344	0.427	0.498	0.559	0.611	0.656
50–54	0.371	0.459	0.533	0.595	0.648	0.694
55–59	0.396	0.487	0.563	0.627	0.680	0.725
60–64	0.419	0.513	0.591	0.655	0.709	0.753
65–69	0.441	0.538	0.616	0.681	0.734	0.777
70–74	0.461	0.560	0.639	0.704	0.756	0.799
75+	0.496	0.602	0.682	0.745	0.795	0.835
All age proportion given average HIV prevalence by age in ALPHA sites
Males	0.262	0.327	0.382	0.430	0.472	0.508
Females	0.228	0.284	0.333	0.374	0.410	0.441
Both sexes	0.240	0.299	0.350	0.394	0.432	0.465