Table 2. Annual rates of each possible transition.
Transition* | Previous bite status | Previous infection status | Current bite status | Current infection status | N | Time at risk (years) | Annual rate (Transitions (N) per year at risk) | Approx. 95% Confidence Interval |
Bit C to Bit C | Fresh bite | None | Fresh bite | None | 9 | 31.10 | 0.289 | 0.151, 0.556 |
Bit C to Bit P | Fresh bite | None | Earlier bite recorded | None | 45 | 31.10 | 1.477 | 1.081, 1.938 |
Bit C to TB-Cul/Bit C | Fresh bite | None | Fresh bite | Culture + | 2 | 31.10 | 0.064 | 0.016, 0.257 |
Bit C to TB-Cul/Bit P | Fresh bite | None | Earlier bite recorded | Culture + | 2 | 31.10 | 0.064 | 0.016, 0.257 |
Bit C to TB-El/Bit P | Fresh bite | None | Earlier bite recorded | ELISA + | 1 | 31.10 | 0.032 | 0.005, 0.228 |
N to Bit C | None | None | Fresh bite | None | 12 | 352.13 | 0.034 | 0.019, 0.060 |
N to Bit P | None | None | Earlier bite recorded | None | 47 | 352.13 | 0.133 | 0.100, 0.178 |
N to TB-Cul | None | None | None | Culture + | 14 | 352.13 | 0.040 | 0.024, 0.067 |
N to TB-Cul/Bit P | None | None | Earlier bite recorded | Culture + | 1 | 352.13 | 0.003 | 0.000, 0.020 |
N to TB-El | None | None | None | ELISA + | 16 | 352.13 | 0.045 | 0.028, 0.074 |
N to TB-El/Bit C | None | None | Fresh bite | ELISA + | 1 | 352.13 | 0.003 | 0.000, 0.020 |
N to TB-El/Bit P | None | None | Earlier bite recorded | ELISA + | 1 | 352.13 | 0.003 | 0.000, 0.020 |
Bit P to Bit C | Earlier bite recorded | None | Fresh bite | None | 21 | 256.44 | 0.082 | 0.053, 0.126 |
Bit P to TB-Cul/Bit C | Earlier bite recorded | None | Fresh bite | Culture + | 4 | 256.44 | 0.016 | 0.006, 0.042 |
Bit P to TB-Cul/Bit P | Earlier bite recorded | None | Earlier bite recorded | Culture + | 20 | 256.44 | 0.078 | 0.050, 0.121 |
Bit P to TB-El/Bit C | Earlier bite recorded | None | Fresh bite | ELISA + | 1 | 256.44 | 0.004 | 0.001, 0.028 |
Bit P to TB-El/Bit P | Earlier bite recorded | None | Earlier bite recorded | ELISA + | 12 | 256.44 | 0.047 | 0.027, 0.082 |
TB-Cul to TB-Cul/Bit C | None | Culture + | Fresh bite | Culture + | 4 | 41.52 | 0.096 | 0.036, 0.257 |
TB-Cul to TB-Cul/Bit P | None | Culture + | Earlier bite recorded | Culture + | 9 | 41.52 | 0.217 | 0.113, 0.417 |
TB-Cul/Bit C to TB-Cul/Bit C | Fresh bite | Culture + | Fresh bite | Culture + | 5 | 11.08 | 0.451 | 0.188, 1.084 |
TB-Cul/Bit C to TB-Cul/Bit P | Fresh bite | Culture + | Earlier bite recorded | Culture + | 20 | 11.08 | 1.805 | 1.165, 2.798 |
TB-Cul/Bit P to TB-Cul/Bit C | Earlier bite recorded | Culture + | Fresh bite | Culture + | 17 | 67.81 | 0.251 | 0.156, 0.403 |
TB-El to TB-El/Bit C | None | ELISA + | Fresh bite | ELISA + | 3 | 90.28 | 0.033 | 0.011, 0.103 |
TB-El to TB-El/Bit P | None | ELISA + | Earlier bite recorded | ELISA + | 7 | 90.28 | 0.078 | 0.037, 0.163 |
TB-El/Bit C to TB-El/Bit P | Fresh bite | ELISA + | Earlier bite recorded | ELISA + | 7 | 5.66 | 1.238 | 0.590, 2.597 |
TB-El/Bit P to TB-El/Bit C | Earlier bite recorded | ELISA + | Fresh bite | ELISA + | 5 | 62.25 | 0.080 | 0.033, 0.193 |
Note that some transitions occurred with very low frequency. They are included here for information although the estimated annual rates are very approximate.