Table 1.

Five year risk of cardiovascular disease in 55 year old men with hypercholes- terolaemia^*: prediction by program (based on Framingham study^10-12) compared with observed event rates in West of Scotland coronary prevention study (WOSCOPS)⁴

End point	Predicted 5 year risk (%)		Observed 5 year event rate (%)
	Non-smoker	Smoker
Coronary heart disease†	7.5	11.9	9.3 (10.7 for composite end point†)
Myocardial infarction‡	3.5	8.8	7.8
Death from coronary heart disease	1.0	2.2	1.9
Stroke	1.3	2.2	1.6

^*Clinical variables correspond to those of WOSCOPS, which examined 6595 men with mean age 55 years who, at entry to study, had mean serum concentrations of total cholesterol and high density lipoprotein cholesterol of 7.07 mmol/l and 1.14 mmol/l respectively, had mean systolic blood pressure of 136 mm Hg, and 44% of whom were smoking. 

^†Defined in Framingham study as myocardial infarction, death from coronary heart disease, angina pectoris, and coronary insufficiency. WOSCOPS reported a combined end point of death from coronary heart disease and non-fatal myocardial infarction. A composite end point from WOSCOPS (event rate shown in brackets) comprising definite non-fatal myocardial infarction and death from coronary heart disease plus revascularisation (percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty and coronary artery bypass graft) may be more comparable to the Framingham definition. 

^‡Includes both fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction for predicted event rates. Observed event rate in WOSCOPS is for non-fatal myocardial infarction.