Figure 1.

The Structural Equation Model (with the Measurement Model included) for the full set of 345 subjects. Weight-adjusted level of response to alcohol (LR) and sex (SEX) are both manifest variables. Peer drinking (PEER) is a latent variable with indicators derived from the Important People and Activities Scale: peera = perceived peer status (from abstainer to heavy drinker), peerb = perceived peer drinking frequencies, peerc = perceived maximum drinking quantities. Alcohol expectancy (EXPECT) is a latent variable with indicators derived from the adolescent and adult Alcohol Expectancy Scales: aeqg = Global Positive Expectancies, aeqs = Social Behavior Expectancies, aeqx = Sex Enhancement, aeqr = Expected Relaxation feelings. Drinking to cope (COPE) is a latent variable with indicators derived from the 6 items of the Drinking to Cope scale with 2 items placed in each of 3 parcels: dtca, dtcb, dtcc. The outcome variable at Time 2 (ALCOUT) is a latent variable with indicators derived from questions regarding two quantities of drinking and the number of alcohol problems: max = maximum drinks in prior 6 months, most = maximum drinks during the heaviest drinking week in prior 6 months, probs = number of 18 potential alcohol problems during the followup. The significant path coefficients (p < .05) are presented for each path and the R² is provided for each latent variable including the final model R² which is given with the Time 2 alcohol outcomes (ALCOUT). Fit indices: CFI = .97, NNFI = .96, RMSEA = .052 (.040 - .064), SRMR = .054.