Table 2.

Observed and Predicted Rates of Change in Prostate-Specific Antigen Levels (μg/L per year)^*

			Cancer Cases
Time Interval Before Diagnosis, y	Controls	BPH Cases	Local or Regional	Metastatic	Significance Tests†
Zero-5.0
Observed median (observed range)	0.03 (−0.30-0.56)	0.12 (−0.32-0.53)	0.88 (−0.04-13.83)	5.35 (1.74-7.69)	LR, M>C, BPH
Predicted	0.04	0.18	0.75	4.40
5.0-10.0
Observed median (observed range)	0.01 (−0.28-0.37)	0.09 (−0.28-1.1)	0.27 (−0.04-1.78)	1.33 (−0.07-1.83)	LR>C, BPH
Predicted	0.03	0.14	0.37	1.26
10.0-15.0
Observed median (observed range)	0.02 (−0.07-0.28)	0.09 (−0.14-0.62)	0.14 (−0.01-0.37)	0.30 (0.12-1.18)	LR>C; M>C, BPH
Predicted	0.02	0.10	0.13	0.42

^*Predicted from the mixed-effects regression model assuming an age at diagnosis of 75.0 years. BPH indicates benign prostatic hyperplasia; LR, local or regional cancer; M, metastatic cancer cases; and C, controls.

^†Results of pairwise comparisons using Mann-Whitney U tests.