Table 2. Fertility metrics as a function of the number of cycles of attempted conception for example 1.
Number of cycles elapsed | Proportion of remaining population who are sterile | Median intrinsic conception rate in remaining population | 90th percentile of intrinsic conception rate in remaining population | Probability of conceiving in next cycle | Probability of conceiving in next 12 cycles | Cumulative probability of conception |
0 | 0.050 | 0.356 | 0.633 | 0.364 | 0.906 | 0.000 |
1 | 0.079 | 0.292 | 0.551 | 0.303 | 0.861 | 0.364 |
3 | 0.151 | 0.205 | 0.431 | 0.217 | 0.758 | 0.670 |
6 | 0.282 | 0.122 | 0.314 | 0.138 | 0.596 | 0.823 |
9 | 0.414 | 0.062 | 0.237 | 0.090 | 0.452 | 0.879 |
12 | 0.530 | 0.000 | 0.183 | 0.060 | 0.337 | 0.906 |
18 | 0.699 | 0.000 | 0.112 | 0.029 | 0.189 | 0.928 |
24 | 0.800 | 0.000 | 0.067 | 0.015 | 0.111 | 0.938 |
35 | 0.895 | 0.000 | 0.012 | 0.006 | 0.048 | 0.944 |
36 | 0.900 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.005 | 0.045 | 0.944 |
In example 1: 5% of couples are assumed to be sterile (intrinsic conception rate = 0). The remaining 95% are assumed to have intrinsic conception rates described by a beta distribution with parameters α = 2.3 and β = 3.7.