Table 3. Fertility metrics as a function of the number of cycles of attempted conception for example 2.
Number of cycles elapsed | Proportion of remaining population who are sterile | Median intrinsic conception rate in remaining population | 90th percentile of intrinsic conception rate in remaining population | Probability of conceiving in next cycle | Probability of conceiving in next 12 cycles | Cumulative probability of conception |
0 | 0.050 | 0.264 | 0.539 | 0.285 | 0.856 | 0.000 |
1 | 0.070 | 0.218 | 0.467 | 0.239 | 0.812 | 0.285 |
3 | 0.116 | 0.157 | 0.365 | 0.177 | 0.724 | 0.567 |
6 | 0.192 | 0.103 | 0.270 | 0.121 | 0.601 | 0.740 |
12 | 0.348 | 0.046 | 0.169 | 0.065 | 0.407 | 0.856 |
18 | 0.482 | 0.010 | 0.116 | 0.039 | 0.277 | 0.896 |
24 | 0.587 | 0.000 | 0.083 | 0.025 | 0.193 | 0.915 |
36 | 0.728 | 0.000 | 0.046 | 0.012 | 0.101 | 0.931 |
In example 2, 5% of couples are assumed to have a zero probability of conceiving. The remaining 95% are assumed to have intrinsic conception rates described by a beta distribution, with α = 1.8 and β = 4.2. This population is systematically less fertile than that in example 1.