Table 8. Fertility metrics as a function of the number of cycles of attempted conception for example 5, at a female age of 30.
Number of cycles elapsed | Proportion of remaining population who are sterile | Median intrinsic conception rate in remaining population | 90th percentile of intrinsic conception rate in remaining population | Probability of conceiving in next cycle | Probability of conceiving in next 12 cycles | Cumulative probability of conception |
0 | 0.02 | 0.195 | 0.367 | 0.209 | 0.839 | 0 |
1 | 0.026 | 0.178 | 0.341 | 0.191 | 0.814 | 0.209 |
3 | 0.04 | 0.151 | 0.297 | 0.163 | 0.763 | 0.473 |
6 | 0.068 | 0.119 | 0.246 | 0.13 | 0.685 | 0.677 |
9 | 0.105 | 0.096 | 0.208 | 0.105 | 0.607 | 0.781 |
12 | 0.149 | 0.077 | 0.179 | 0.086 | 0.532 | 0.839 |
18 | 0.259 | 0.048 | 0.134 | 0.058 | 0.398 | 0.898 |
24 | 0.379 | 0.024 | 0.102 | 0.039 | 0.29 | 0.925 |
36 | 0.606 | 0 | 0.059 | 0.018 | 0.148 | 0.947 |
In example 5, couples are assumed to have peak intrinsic conception rates drawn from a beta distribution with α = 3 and β = 10; the distribution of female ages at which couples become sterile is as given in [24], Table 2; a couple's intrinsic conception rate declines linearly for 12.5 years prior to sterility.