Table 9. Fertility metrics as a function of the number of cycles of attempted conception for example 5, at a female age of 35.
Number of cycles elapsed | Proportion of remaining population who are sterile | Median intrinsic conception rate in remaining population | 90th percentile of intrinsic conception rate in remaining population | Probability of conceiving in next cycle | Probability of conceiving in next 12 cycles | Cumulative probability of conception |
0 | 0.051 | 0.147 | 0.31 | 0.162 | 0.733 | 0 |
1 | 0.062 | 0.133 | 0.286 | 0.147 | 0.7 | 0.162 |
3 | 0.088 | 0.109 | 0.245 | 0.122 | 0.635 | 0.381 |
6 | 0.133 | 0.082 | 0.2 | 0.094 | 0.544 | 0.566 |
9 | 0.184 | 0.062 | 0.166 | 0.074 | 0.46 | 0.67 |
12 | 0.239 | 0.046 | 0.139 | 0.058 | 0.387 | 0.733 |
18 | 0.365 | 0.021 | 0.1 | 0.037 | 0.268 | 0.802 |
24 | 0.486 | 0.002 | 0.072 | 0.024 | 0.184 | 0.836 |
36 | 0.7 | 0 | 0.036 | 0.01 | 0.085 | 0.866 |
In example 5, couples are assumed to have peak intrinsic conception rates drawn from a beta distribution with α = 3 and β = 10; the distribution of female ages at which couples become sterile is as given in [24], Table 2; a couple's intrinsic conception rate declines linearly for 12.5 years prior to sterility.