. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2012 Oct 5.

Published in final edited form as: Stat Methods Med Res. 2012 Apr 25;21(5):457–477. doi: 10.1177/0962280212446319

Table 2.

Simulation study, Scenario 1. Sensitivity and median time to outbreak detection (both posterior average estimates and 95% credible intervals) of the surveillance conditional predictive ordinate (SCPO) and the multivariate surveillance conditional predictive ordinate (MSCPO).

	SCPO		MSCPO
	Sens	MTD	Sens	MTD
Disease 1	0.46	Inf	0.68	2
	[0.13,0.75]	[1,Inf)	[0.38,0.94]	[0,Inf)
Disease 2	0.28	Inf	0.60	2.5
	[0.13,0.5]	(Inf,Inf)	[0.25,0.88]	[0,Inf)
Disease 3	0.78	1	0.82	1
	[0.5,1]	[0,Inf)	[0.5,1]	[0,Inf)