Table 3.
Dependent variables | Time period | Factored ARIMA model* | Independent variables† | Coefficients‡ | p value |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Primary analyses | |||||
ACEIs |
Jan 1997 toDec 2008 |
p = (1)(12); |
Constant |
4,509,908 |
<0.0001 |
q = (1)(9) |
Baseline trend |
66,568 |
<0.0001 |
||
|
|
|
PA2000 level change |
-592,252 |
0.0151 |
|
|
|
PA2003 level change |
-1,255,287 |
<0.0001 |
|
|
|
PA2004 trend change |
-96,582 |
<0.0001 |
|
|
|
PA2006 level change |
-1,545,767 |
<0.0001 |
|
|
|
CNY |
-351,216 |
0.0029 |
ARB |
Feb 1998 toDec 2008 |
p = (12); |
Baseline trend |
92,537 |
<0.0001 |
q = (2) |
PA2001 trend change |
160,472 |
<0.0001 |
||
|
|
|
PA2004 trend change |
-120,338 |
<0.0001 |
|
|
|
PA2007 trend change |
194,043 |
<0.0001 |
|
|
|
CNY |
-577,052 |
0.0220 |
Renin-angiotensin drugs |
Jan 1997 to Dec 2008 |
p = (6); |
Constant |
3,753,898 |
<0.0001 |
q = (6) |
Baseline trend |
152,800 |
<0.0001 |
||
|
|
|
PA2001 trend change |
110,259 |
<0.0001 |
|
|
|
PA2004 trend change |
-133,325 |
<0.0001 |
|
|
|
PA2006 level change |
-2,224,884 |
<0.0001 |
|
|
|
PA2007 trend change |
173,056 |
<0.0001 |
|
|
|
CNY |
-1,108,357 |
0.0011 |
Subgroup analyses for ACEIs | |||||
Patented ACEIs |
Jan 1997 to Dec 2008 |
p = (1)(6,12); |
Constant |
497,488 |
<0.0001 |
q = (1) |
Baseline trend |
12,684 |
<0.0001 |
||
|
|
|
PA2001 level change |
189,675 |
0.0281 |
|
|
|
PA2007 trend change |
25,478 |
0.0088 |
|
|
|
CNY |
-116,498 |
0.0011 |
Off-patent ACEIs |
Jan 1997 to Dec 2008 |
p = (1)(12); |
Constant |
3,987,107 |
<0.0001 |
q = (1)(9) |
Baseline trend |
45,221 |
<0.0001 |
||
|
|
|
PA2000 level change |
-380,037 |
0.0251 |
|
|
|
PA2003 level change |
-1,022,868 |
<0.0001 |
|
|
|
PA2004 trend change |
-70,970 |
<0.0001 |
|
|
|
PA2006 level change |
-1,675,618 |
<0.0001 |
|
|
|
PA2007 level change |
-689,097 |
0.0002 |
|
|
|
CNY |
-239,858 |
0.0034 |
Off-patent original branded ACEIs |
Jan 1997 to Dec 2008 |
p = (1)(12); |
Constant |
3,195,426 |
<0.0001 |
q = (1)(9) |
Baseline trend |
12,121 |
0.0081 |
||
|
|
|
PA2000 level change |
-266,177 |
0.0271 |
|
|
|
PA2003 level change |
-498,038 |
<0.0001 |
|
|
|
PA2004 trend change |
-46,182 |
<0.0001 |
|
|
|
PA2006 level change |
-575,144 |
<0.0001 |
|
|
|
CNY |
-182,498 |
0.0019 |
Off-patent generic ACEIs |
Jan 1997 to Dec 2008 |
p = (1)(12); |
Constant |
985,881 |
0.0269 |
q = (1)(5,9) |
Baseline trend |
27,153 |
0.0008 |
||
|
|
|
PA2003 level change |
-525,353 |
<0.0001 |
|
|
|
PA2006 level change |
-1,092,328 |
<0.0001 |
PA2007 level change | -524,951 | <0.0001 |
*Factored ARIMA model is represented by p, d, q: p, auto-regressive order; d, differencing order; q, moving-average order; seasonal order is represented by p = (12), d = (12) or q = (12). Take patented ACEIs as an example. The autoregressive operator represented by p = (1)(6,12) means
(1-θ 1 B) (1-θ 6 B 6 -θ 12 B 12 ).
†Parsimonious models were adopted, and therefore, only significant independent variables were incorporated into the model.
‡The unit of the regression coefficient is NT$ (NT$, New Taiwan Dollars; at an exchange rate of NT$30.39 to US$1 on June 30, 2008)
ACEIs, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors; ARBs, angiotensin receptor blocker; ARIMA, auto-regressive integrated moving-average;
CNY, Chinese new year; PA2000, price adjustment implemented on April 1, 2000; PA2001, price adjustment implemented on April 1, 2001; PA2003, price adjustment implemented on March 1, 2003; PA2004, price adjustment implemented on November 1, 2004; PA2005, price adjustment implemented on September 1, 2005; PA2006, price adjustment implemented on November 1, 2006; PA2007, price adjustment implemented on September 1, 2007.