Figure 1.

Comparison of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for prediction of hospital death by APACHE III, APACHE IV (with and without DNR status), SAPS 3 (with and without DNR status), and MPM₀III. The discriminatory performances of APACHE III and APACHE IV were similar (P = .621). Both APACHE models discriminated better than SAPS 3 (P < .001). MPM₀III discrimination was inferior to all the other models (P < .001 for each comparison). Inclusion of DNR status in the APACHE or SAPS models did not significantly change the areas under the curve. APACHE III DNR is omitted as the curve is almost superimposed on APACHE III. APACHE = Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation; DNR = do not resuscitate; SAPS = Simplified Acute Physiology Score; MPM = Mortality Probability Model.