Table 1.

Projected populations and coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke events by demographic category, total population and age-stratified, Chinese adults aged 35–84 years in 2010 and 2030.

	Urban		Rural		All of China
	North	South	North	South	Totals
2010
Population
Ages 35–84 years	123,857,642	169,366,434	150,281,873	209,114,947	652,620,896
Ages 35–54 years	81,548,794	111,512,122	91,945,410	127,940,644	412,946,971
Ages 55–84 years	42,308,847	57,854,312	58,336,463	81,174,303	239,673,925
CHD
Total
Incident events	358,000	235,000	339,000	142,000	1,384,000
Crude rate (per 100,000)	286	137	223	67	164
Age 35–54
Incident events	61,000	37,000	72,000	15,000	185,000
Crude rate (per 100,000)	75	33	79	12	45
Age 55–84
Incident events	297,000	198,000	266,000	127,000	888,000
Crude rate (per 100,000)	702	342	456	156	370
Stroke
Total
Incident events	1,196,000	1,080,000	1,646,000	1,235,000	5,120,000
Crude rate (per 100,000)	966	637	1,095	591	790
Age 35–54
Incident events	302,000	184,000	392,000	166,000	559,000
Crude rate (per 100,000)	370	164	427	130	253
Age 55–84
Incident events	894,000	896,000	1,254,000	1,068,000	2,322,000
Crude rate (per 100,000)	2,113	1,550	2,149	1,316	1,716
2030
Population
Ages 35–84 years
High urbanization projection	215,030,000	294,039,000	144,499,000	201,067,000	854,636,000
Low urbanization projection	192,102,000	262,685,000	167,197,000	232,652,000	854,636,000
% Change (range)	(53.2–71.5)	(53.2–71.5)	(−4.9–10.0)	(−4.9–10.0)
Ages 35–54 years
High urbanization projection	106,211,000	145,236,000	64,634,000	89,938,000	406,019,000
Low urbanization projection	94,885,000	129,749,000	75,732,223	105,380,000	405,746,546
% Change (range)	(16.4–30.2)	(16.4–30.2)	(−29.7– −17.6)	(−29.7– −17.6)
Ages 55–84 years
High urbanization projection	104,184,000	142,465,000	77047000	107,210,000	430,906,000
Low urbanization projection	93,075,000	127,273,000	88238711	122,783,000	431,370,000
% Change (range)	(120.0–146.3	(120.0–146.3)	(32.1–51.3)	(32.1–51.3)
Incident CHD
Ages 35–84 years
High urbanization projection	840,000	554,000	416,000	187,000	1,998,000
Low urbanization projection	751,000	495,000	477,000	215,000	1,938,000
% Change (range)	(109.6–134.7)	(111.0–136.2)	(23.5–41.7)	(32.2–51.5)	(80.6–86.2)
Ages 35–54 years
High urbanization projection	81,000	50,000	51,000	11,000	193,000
Low urbanization projection	73,000	45,000	59,000	13,000	189,000
% Change (range)	(19.2–33.4)	(20.4–34.8)	(−28.8– −17.7)	(−27.8– −16.35)	(2.2–4.4)
Ages 55–84 years
High urbanization projection	759,000	505,000	364,000	176,000	1,805,000
Low urbanization projection	678,000	451,000	417,000	202,000	1,748,000
% Change (range)	(128.2–155.4)	(128.0–155.2)	(36.9–59.6)	(39.3–59.5)	(103.3–96.6)
Incident stroke
Ages 35–84 years
High urbanization projection	2,699,000	2,599,000	2,032,000	1,634,000	8,963,000
Low urbanization projection	2,411,000	2,321,000	2,332,000	1,872,000	8,936,000
% Change (range)	(101.6–125.6)	(115.0–140.7)	(23.5–41.7)	(32.3–51.6)	(73.3–73.8)
Ages 35–54 years
High urbanization projection	409,000	251,000	285,000	122,000	1,067,000
Low urbanization projection	366,000	225,000	330,000	140,000	1,061,000
% Change (range)	(21.1–35.5)	(22.7–37.3)	(−27.5– −15.8)	(−27.0–15.8)	(1.6–2.2)
Ages 55–84 years
High urbanization projection	2,289,000	2,347,000	1,747,000	1,512,000	7,896,000
Low urbanization projection	2,045,000	2,097,000	2,001,000	1,732,000	7,875,000
% Change (range)	(128.8–156.1)	(161.8–133.9)	(39.4–59.6)	(41.5–62.1)	(91.5–92.0)