. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2013 Oct 1.

Published in final edited form as: Int J Public Health. 2012 Aug 24;57(5):849–854. doi: 10.1007/s00038-012-0400-y

Table 2.

Comparison of projected coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke events in China, 2030 from three scenarios: demographic changes without change in % urban, demographic changes plus urbanization scenarios projected in the analysis, and demographic changes plus risk factor trends (Moran et al. 2010).

Demographic and/or risk factor scenario	Projections for 2030 [number of events (% higher than 2030 estimate assuming demographic changes only)]
Demographic and/or risk factor scenario	CHD events	Stroke events
Demographic changes only (aging and population growth)	1,718,000	7,656,000

Demographic changes plus urbanization trend
High urbanization projection	1,998,000 (16.3)	8,963,000 (16.7)
Low urbanization projection	1,938,000 (12.8)	8,936,000 (17.1)

Demographic changes plus risk factor trends
Projected trends in blood pressure, total cholesterol, diabetes; smoking decline	1,958,952 (14.0)	8,989,000 (17.4)
Projected trends in blood pressure, total cholesterol, diabetes; no smoking decline	2,077,000 (20.9)	9,034,000 (18.0)