Table II.

In-sample window period and out-of-sample probabilities of reaching threshold within given time periods, for the naïve and uniform prior models

		In-sample window period, days*			Predicted out-of-sample probability of reaching threshold
Model	Threshold	Mean	Median	90th percentile	0–3 months	0–6 months	0–9 months	0–12 months
Naïve model	0.60	72	59	145	0.73	0.94	0.98	1.00
		(63, 86)	(49, 68)	(117, 184)
	0.70	125	100	244	0.46	0.80	0.92	0.96
		(109, 149)	(86, 114)	(197, 314)
	0.75	160	125	309	0.34	0.70	0.86	0.93
		(139, 191)	(108, 144)	(249, 405)
	0.80	203	156	391	0.24	0.58	0.78	0.88
		(175, 244)	(135, 180)	(312, 520)
Uniform prior model	0.60	71	56	139	0.75	0.95	0.98	0.99
		(61, 85)	(46, 66)	(112, 180)
	0.70	125	97	242	0.46	0.81	0.92	0.96
		(108, 149)	(82, 112)	(193, 319)
	0.75	160	122	311	0.34	0.70	0.86	0.93
		(138, 192)	(104, 141)	(246, 413)
	0.80	202	152	395	0.25	0.59	0.78	0.88
		(174, 245)	(129, 176)	(310, 529)

^*Posterior median and 95 per cent credible intervals presented for each quantity.