Table 3. Calculation of key accuracy indexes spanning 1994–2009 evaluating the predictive quality of the D-R and GM(1,1) models.

	I-U		I-G		D-U		D-G
	D-R	GM(1,1)	D-R	GM(1,1)	D-R	GM(1,1)	D-R	GM(1,1)
SSE	2.76	3.58	21.43	49.54	0.01	0.01	0.04	0.38
RSE	0.43	0.49	1.20	1.82	0.02	0.03	0.05	0.16
MAD	0.28	0.40	0.81	1.29	0.02	0.02	0.04	0.08
ARE	−1.26%	4.65%	−1.50%	−13.22%	−1.70%	6.39%	−0.18%	−12.97%
MAPE	3.99%	6.59%	7.93%	13.22%	6.46%	7.65%	7.86%	14.17%

Note: I-U, I-G, D-U and D-G represent the incidence (I) and deaths (D) of tuberculosis in the US (U) and Germany (G), among HIV-negative TB patients in the. D-R and GM(1,1) define the algorithms from which these values were derived.