Table 1.

Model Parameters and Sources

Variable	Base Value		Source
General population death rates	Varied by age and sex		[29]
General population cardiac mortality rates	Varied by age and sex		[29]
HIV 6-mo mortality rates with no treatment, by CD4 state			[34]
<50	0.1005
50–99	0.02
100–199	0.0108
200–349	0.006
350–499	0.0016
500–649	0.001
≥650	0.0008
Average 6-mo decrease in CD4 count for patients not on treatment (cells/mm3)	35.25		[28]
On treatment mortality and progression: “all benefits” case
HIV 6-month mortality rates on treatment, by CD4 state:			[33]
<50	0.0167
50–99	0.0119
100–199	0.0085
200–349	0.0039
350–499	0.0003
500–649	0.0002
≥650	0.0002
Average 6-mo increase in CD4 count (cells/mm3) if treatment was started:			[37]
6 mo ago	100
12 mo ago	50
18 mo ago	40
24 mo ago	40
30 mo ago	25
36 mo ago	20
42 mo ago	20
48 mo ago	0
On treatment mortality and progression: “partial benefits” case
HIV 6-mo mortality rates on treatment, by CD4 state:			[33]
<50	0.0167
50–99	0.0119
100–199	0.0085
200–349	0.0039
350–499	0.0012
500–649	0.001
≥650	0.0008
Average 6-mo increase in CD4 count (cells/mm3) if treatment was started:			[37]
6 mo ago	100
12 mo ago	50
18 mo ago	40
24 mo ago	40
30 mo ago	25
36 mo ago	20
42 mo ago	20
48 mo ago	0
On treatment mortality and progression: “no benefits above 500 cells/mm3” case
HIV 6-mo mortality rates on treatment, by CD4 state:			[33]
<50	0.0167
50–99	0.0119
100–199	0.0085
200–349	0.0039
350–499	0.0012
500–649	0.001
≥650	0.0008
If current CD4 is <500 cells/mm3
Average 6-mo increase in CD4 count (cells/mm3) if treatment was started:			[37]
6 mo ago	100
12 mo ago	50
18 mo ago	40
24 mo ago	40
30 mo ago	25
36 mo ago	20
42 mo ago	20
48 mo ago	0
If current CD4 is >500 cells/mm3
Average 6-mo increase in CD4 count (cells/mm3)	−35.25		[28]
Health utilities for each CD4 state			[5, 13, 26]
Life-years maximizing	With treatment	Without treatment
<50	1	1
50–99	1	1
100–199	1	1
200–349	1	1
350–499	1	1
500–649	1	1
≥650	1	1
ART dominating in quality of life at all CD4 counts <650 cells/mm3	With treatment	Without treatment
<50	0.82	0.7
50–99	0.83	0.73
100–199	0.84	0.76
200–349	0.85	0.79
350–499	0.86	0.82
500–649	0.87	0.85
≥650	0.88	0.88
ART-induced decrement in quality of life at highest CD4 state	With treatment	Without treatment
<50	0.82	0.72
50–99	0.83	0.75
100–199	0.84	0.78
200–349	0.85	0.81
350–499	0.86	0.84
500–649	0.87	0.87
≥650	0.88	0.9

All CD4 values are reported as cells/mm³.

Abbreviations: ART, antiretroviral therapy; HIV, human immunodeficiency virus.