Figure 3. Tail distribution for transition to metastasis as a function of primary tumor size.
Our model predicts that a patient with a primary tumor of diameter 0.5 cm is very unlikely to have significant metastasis (where we define “significant201D as at least one gram). As we increase diameter, we predict that a patient with a primary tumor of diameter d = 2 cm is equally likely and unlikely to have metastasis. By d = 3, metastasis is predicted to be near-certain.